Analyst disagrees on iPhone XR sales: iPhone sales half of it or less than iPhone XS/Max

Two Apple analysts examine the supply chain data reaches a very different conclusion which means for iPhone XR sales.

Supply chain analyst, Cowan sees with some issues where display panel shipments, with the firm belief production indicating iPhone XR sales where fully half of all iPhones sold….

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has six different factors which have a support of this. With the display, one of the key differentiators where the iPhone XR, provides the biggest clue into is iPhone XR sales.

Yield Expectations/Timing Nuances – By having a belief of the production gap is between the OLED and LCD models which has a parity where despite, despite the XR model delayed by a month.

With reports suggestive of some difficulties where LCD manufacturers, Cowan seeing no downturn with overall volume.

Panel Shipments – With some noise this month on a panel with an order of shipments we are not able to see a downward revision to LCD model. We thus continue expectation of the LCD version where the garner half of this year iPhone units.

Rosenblatt, however, has a far more pessimistic view. This is suggestive of not only iPhone XR sales which represent less than half of all iPhones. This is due to sales, but they do not match iPhone XS/Max sales.

After tracking where one sell-through data is from various retail channels, is what we believe is with the initial iPhone XR sales which are weaker as we expected and weaker than XS/XS Max sales. We thus estimate global first weekend sales where iPhone XR to be ~9 million units, 1 million units which are lower than sales of the XS/XS Max in the first weekend. Compared to the iPhone 8/8Plus, one must note that believing XR sales is better. This is with 8 Plus faced constraints and smaller sell base.

We trim our iPhone Production and shipments by 6 million units for Q4. We thus previously modeled a new iPhone which produces 90-95 million units and shipments of 80 -85 million units. Thus we revise estimates showing a new iPhone production of 88 million units. This is with shipments of 76-77 million units for the second half of this year.

Apple began ramping up production. This is where there is a new model went on sale with Ming-Chi Kuo increases own iPhone XR sales projections. He later states pre-order demand which points the XR doing better with the iPhone 8/Plus did last year.

Apple reports fiscal Q4 earnings on Thursday but provides clues to iPhone XS/Max sales only. This is where iPhone XR sales fall with the following quarter.