Disagreement of Analyst iPhone XR sales: Half iPhone sales or less than iPhone XS / Max

Two Apple analysts having the same supply chain data examines on a reach of with different conclusions mean for iPhone XR sales.

Supply Chain Analyst, Cowan faces issues with display panel shipments. Thus it believes firm production, indicates iPhone XR sales accounts with fully half of all iPhones sold …

Philip Elmer-DeWitt says firm cites a different factor in support with one key differentiator of the iPhone XR. This provides the biggest clue into XR sales.

Yield Expectations/Timing Nuances – We believe with production gap.  This is due to an OLED and LCD models, which is despite XR model delayed by one month.

With reports where difficulty in LCD manufactured, Cowan is with no downturn overall volume.

Panel Shipments – With the noise of this month on panel orders shipments, one does not see a downward with a revision of LCD model. We continue expectation with LCD version where there are a garner half of this year’s iPhone units.

Rosenblatt takes a far more pessimistic view. This is suggestive of doing iPhone XR with sales representation. This is with less than half of all iPhones sold, which does not match with iPhone XS / Max sales.

After tracking retail channels selling through, believes with iPhone XR sales weaker expected with weaker XS/XS Max sales. We estimate global first weekend sales where iPhone XR to be ~9 million units, 1 million units lower than sales of the XS/XS Max within the first weekend. Comparatively, iPhone 8/8Plus, believes XR sales with 8 Plus face constraints with a smaller sell-through base.

We trim our iPhone Production with shipments by 6 million units for Q4. Thus, we previously model out new iPhone production of 90-95 million units and shipments of 80 -85 million units. We thus revise estimates shows a new iPhone production of 88 million units and shipments of 76-77 million units within the second half of this year.

Apple ramps production before new model on sale, with Ming-Chi Kuo, increases own iPhone XR sales projections. He later states pre-order demand pointed XR with better iPhone 8/Plus last year.

Apple report fiscal Q4 earnings on Thursday, with a clue to iPhone XS/Max sales, with iPhone XR sales fall the following quarter.